The Ontario Liberals announced this morning they will bring their 2012 provincial budget to a vote April 24, 2012- one week from tomorrow. They also stated they've been unable so far to come to a deal with Andrea Horwath and the N.D.P, something vital for avoiding the second provincial election in a year.
I don't think this budget is worth going to an election over. The major weakness from where I sit is the lack of a job creation strategy. There is no reason the N.D.P's idea of a tax credit for companies creating new jobs can't be tweaked to suit the Liberals budget.
The problem with that is the Liberals have asked the N.D.P. to cost out their demands. This one carries a $250 million price tag. Where will the N.D.P. get the money? The answer lies likely in demand #1: a tax increase for those making over $500 thousand/ year. Essentially this could put the Premier known for repeating he will not raise taxes a penny more, in a position of having to raise taxes in order keep his government afloat. Something that amounts to political suicide for McGuinty, and something none of us wants.
An election right now won't benefit anyone. The low turnout last time will be surpassed by a turnout this time; people will vote with their feet and stay away. They'll say a pox upon all of your houses, and the results may even be messier than they are right now. Besides that, can a province that's billions in debt afford to throw out another $100 million?
The only thing it might do is force the Liberals to clean house at Health after the scandal at Ornge. Tempting as that is, I don't really think that's worth an election; the same can be done much cheaper with a simple resignation. The budget will be more like background noise for another campaign; it will be the fight being waged by the public sector unions against a pay freeze. It may even be framed as a discussion over the future of organized labour.
Will we have another election? My gut says no... that budget isn't worth going to a campaign over. But perhaps the ongoing fight against the attempted pay freeze may send us there; organized labour is a pretty powerful force in Ontario. Whatever happens the ball is clearly in Andrea Horwath's we'll know for sure April 24, 2012.
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