Saturday, April 28, 2012

Oh Ontario how you frustrate me

 The title is born mostly of frustration.  I've been on the job market since late November... and let's say I've had enough bites to know that it's more likely because of job market conditions than any lack of qualifications on my part.   The fact is a lot of employers simply for whatever reason aren't hiring.

And I think it's about to get worse.  On Wednesday the announcement came down that Standard& Poors was downgrading our economic outlook, and Thursday Moody's decided to downgrade Ontario's credit.  It likely has something to do with the budget deal struck Monday, and then the budget voted on, Tuesday.

It probably is really  no more than a verdict on the provincial budget.  Specifically on the fact there is a new tax being applied when conventional wisdom shows us that business tax cuts are a better way to stimulate growth in private business.  And who runs private business? Usually people making over $500 thousand... aka those being asked to fork it over by the N.D.P.

It's a wake-up call to Dalton McGuinty that he's got to stick to his guns on the Public Sector wage freeze, and the other cost-cutting measures contained within the budget.  This may even shock him into re-thinking some of his response to the Drummond Report, and really going at it to cut spending.  At least these are the things I keep trying to tell myself.

I look at these moves as a job hunter and wonder if I'm banging my head against a brick wall trying to find a job here.  I wonder who will invest in a province that's got this enormous debt, and where the Premier is so beholden to his opposition he introduces a new tax just to keep power? Who will invest in a province where a government is constantly on the verge of collapse and the Premier let's face it, isn't exactly the most trustworthy as it comes to public money these days? Who will invest in a province  where taxes are probably going to keep going up?  Nobody, that's who.  Not a single investor will, and I can't say that I blame them.

And the worst part of is Dalton McGuinty is probably the best of the bunch.  In her deal with the Liberals N.D.P. leader Andrea Horwath showed a penchant for taxing, and spending usually associated with the party.  In doing some reading on their website the P.C.'s have some ideas, but they're vague at best;the minute they become policy ideas is the minute they become a serious threat to McGuinty.

So when did that happen? When did a leader who has regularly broken promises, whose government has been in recent years plagued by scandals involving out tax dollars become the best we can do? Probably after the last provincial election when even after nearly a year of campaigning voters still didn't know Tim Hudak that well or trust him.

Dalton McGuinty made the mess.  Now's the time to clean it up... if he doesn't then voters should do it for him by electing someone else next time out.  At least I hope that's what will happen.  If it doesn't  I'll move to Saskatchewan.

Wednesday, April 25, 2012

The Deal, and the Politics

The deal reached Monday that averted an election doesn't bother me.  It forced the people making over $500 thousand to pay an extra 2% on their taxes.  It seems a pittance to me to avoid a provincial election worth over $100 million that probably wouldn't have accomplished much anyway.  McGuinty is saying right now the tax will only stay until the deficit is paid off.  I've heard it said it is nearly impossible to repeal a tax measure once implemented.

What's more interesting here is the politics. Dalton McGuinty made a catchphrase out of "I will not raise taxes a penny more," and now here he is having to break a promise... again.   The polls show it's a move the rest of us fully support; but it is still is a broken promise.  And it's one that has to anger his party's supporters on Bay Street who will be effected by this, and that will end up costing him votes.  When you put it together with the rest of the budget- the semi-voluntary public sector wage freeze, and asking seniors to pay more for their drugs based on the income; this could be end up being a politically expensive budget for him. 

The N.D.P. and Andrea Horwath come off as a political winner here.  She got what she wanted; the tax hike, and more money for social programs and health care.  She comes off as a strong leader in the eyes of her supporters, and maybe wins a few more a votes given that she saved the government from defeat.  But it's a pretty hollow victory. It's a dangerous game she plays; agreeing to a deal one day, and abstaining from a vote  on the budget the next. It begs the question why make the deal if you don't plan to vote for it?  It's almost as if the N.D.P. wants to have its cake and eat it too- it wants to push through its priorities but it's almost like it's reserving the right to vote against it at a later date.   It raises some integrity questions about the N.D.P.

Tim Hudak comes off as being the big loser in all of this.  I give him points for consistency- he said his party would vote against it, and so they did.  He's also isolated himself now, sitting firmly on the outside looking in, as Andrea Horwath takes the lead in a role that should really be his as leader of the opposition. I find lately Hudak's been going for the easy line too much, instead of the good policy idea; it makes it seem as if he hasn't found the balance between providing a government-in-waiting, and a voice for the opposition.   

The deal has been struck ensuring the McGuinty government's survival.  However the games have just begun. 

Monday, April 23, 2012

Stories to Watch: April 23- 30

What stories am I watching this week? Here's the answer:

1. The Budget Dance: Will Andrea Horwath support Dalton McGuinty's budget? Will there be a bargain struck today that will ensure the government survives to fight another few months? Or will we be heading to the polls? So many questions, so few answers.  We find out the final answer tomorrow.  An interesting side-note to this story NewsTalk1010 is running a poll on their website asking listeners if they want the two of them to reach an agreement, or have an election.  The results are surprising, at last check:  73.1% of people who answered the question want an election.

2. Ornge Inquiry: The all-parties public accounts committee at Queen's Park is conducting an inquiry into the misspending at the Ornge Air Ambulance Service.  Last week we learned that one of McGuinty's political advisers knew what was going on, but did nothing.  The committee also revealed plans to ask for a rarely used Speaker's warrant to be issued for former Ornge CEO Chris Mazza to appear in early May.  The only problem: Nobody knows where Mazza is.

3. Alberta Election:  Albertans could make history today by changing the Progressive Conservatives and Alison Redford for Danielle Smith and the Wild Rose Alliance.  The P.C.'s have reigned supreme for the last 41 years, and some opinion polls indicate if they were to win, it would be a minority.  If the Wild Rose Alliance wins it could set up an interesting dynamic within Canada, as the party takes a fairly confrontational attitude towards the province of Quebec.

4. Quebec Student Protests:  Speaking of Quebec, the province's students continue their fight against possible tuition hikes. On Friday groups of protesters attacked the Montreal Convention Centre as Premier Jean Charest addressed the city's business community.  There is a slight possibility Charest could call a provincial election.

5. Local Politics: Milton Town Council meets tonight (April 23, 2012).  Some items on the agenda include; the Velodrome,  a proposal to expand the Gymnastics facility at the Milton Sports Centre, and a notice of motion regarding the continued development of the Horse Industry from Ward 3 Councilor Cindy Lunau.  For a full agenda click here.  The link will take to the PDF format- you need an Adobe reader to view the agenda.

Thursday, April 19, 2012

Milestones Matter

Tuesday April 17, was Charter Day.  It marked thirty years since Pierre Elliott Trudeau signed on behalf of Canada a document that enshrined our rights in law.  I started a thread over on the Hawthorne Villager about it, and it quickly disintegrated into Trudeau bashing.

It got me thinking about the Canadian Identity, and how milestones matter. In the last two weeks two important anniversaries were marked.  The first was the 95th anniversary of Vimy Ridge.  Canada was barely 50 years old.  At the outset of World War I Canadian soldiers were scattered among British regiments fighting under British commanders.  At Vimy Ridge they were gathered together forming four divisions under a Canadian commander and asked to fight.  In the war's context it wasn't a very significant battle, but after it was done Canada had an army.  And that made it very significant for Canadian history.


  On April 17, 1982 the  Charter of Rights and Freedoms, was officially signed into law.  Before then Canada enjoyed a kind of half-nation status; some decisions could be appealed to the British Privy Council as late as the 1970's. Until the Constitution and Charter's passage Canada was ruled by the British North America Act- something that originally created the country.  There were no firm rights for First Nations, and the Provinces had little idea on their responsibilities; ie: what they had to provide for the citizens.

Thanks to the Charter, as of 1982 Canadians had their rights enshrined- as close to set in stone as you could get.  It made it illegal for someone to be discriminated against based on their colour, sexual orientation, or religion.  It guaranteed people the right to vote in an election, and the right to stand themselves for election.  It cemented people's freedoms of mobility- to leave the country/ province.  It guaranteed that citizens were treated fairly under, and before the law (people were given a free trial).  In short, and in hindsight it was a remarkable achievement.  Making it even better, did you know the Charter of Rights served as inspiration for something similar in South Africa?

And that's why I'm disappointed in the Harper government for marking it with merely a press release; a statement.  I get that it's a hyper partisan atmosphere in Ottawa these days; and Pierre Trudeau was after all a Liberal.  But he did get the leaders of 10 different provinces and territories to agree on something- and that's an achievement few Prime Ministers have been able to duplicate since.  And arguably the charter and its stated freedom of expression is the reason why politicians can call each other names.  Shouldn't such an achievement have greater recognition?

Canada is so eager for newcomers to appreciate our culture, and history. It's time we started making milestones matter despite the politics behind them.  You never know, that could be the start of a different identity apart from being "not American."

Monday, April 16, 2012

Ontario Budget Vote Day: April 24, 2012

The Ontario Liberals announced this morning they will bring their 2012 provincial budget to a vote April 24, 2012- one week from tomorrow.  They also stated they've been unable so far to come to a deal with Andrea Horwath and the N.D.P, something vital for avoiding the second provincial election in a year.

I don't think this budget is worth going to an election over.  The major weakness from where I sit is the lack of a job creation strategy.  There is no reason the N.D.P's idea of a tax credit for companies creating new jobs can't be tweaked to suit the Liberals budget.

The problem with that is the Liberals have asked the N.D.P. to cost out their demands.  This one carries a $250 million price tag.  Where will the N.D.P. get the money? The answer lies likely in demand #1: a tax increase for those making over $500 thousand/ year.  Essentially this could put  the Premier known for repeating he will not raise taxes a penny more, in a position of having to raise taxes in order keep his government afloat. Something that amounts to political suicide for McGuinty, and something none of us wants.

An election right now won't benefit anyone.  The low turnout last time will be surpassed by a turnout this time; people will vote with their feet and stay away.  They'll say a pox upon all of your houses, and the results may even be messier than they are right now.  Besides that, can a province that's billions in debt afford to throw out another $100 million?

The only thing it might do is force the Liberals to clean house at Health after the scandal at Ornge.  Tempting as that is, I don't really think that's worth an election; the same can be done much cheaper with a simple resignation. The budget will be more like background noise for another campaign; it will be the fight being waged by the public sector unions against a pay freeze.  It may even be framed as a discussion over the future of organized labour.

Will we have another election? My gut says no... that budget isn't worth going to a campaign over.  But perhaps the ongoing fight against the attempted pay freeze may send us there; organized labour is a pretty powerful force in Ontario.  Whatever happens the ball is clearly in Andrea Horwath's  we'll know for sure April 24, 2012.

    

Monday, April 2, 2012

My Stories To Watch: April 2-9 2012

Stories to watch this week....

1. Ontario Budget Drama:  What price will the N.D.P. demand of Dalton McGuinty to keep him in power? Andrea Horwath is set to give her demands, or let us know if she intends to follow fellow Opposition Leader Tim Hudak and vote it down.  In an interview with Moore in the Morning today, Horwath refused to say if she even been talking to the Liberals over the weekend.

2. The Three Amigos meet: Prime Minister Stephen Harper is meeting in Washington with President Barack Obama, with Mexican President  Calderon. Items on the agenda include greater trade ties, and how to tackle the Mexican drug cartels.

3.  The Rafferty Trial: Chapter #4 of the Crown's case against Michael Rafferty continues this week.  Today the jury takes a tour of the field where Tory Stafford's body was found.

4. Air Canada: The union representing airline's machinists are taking the federal government to court.  They're arguing the federal government's anti-strike legislation is unconstitutional because it violates the freedom of association.  The pilot's union has started a similar challenge.

In Local Politics...
Note: Tonight's Community Services Standing Committee meeting has been cancelled.  

Sunday, April 1, 2012

Federal Budget Verdict: 2012

It was a two-budget week for Ontario.  Tuesday Dwight Duncan presented the provincial budget, while Thursday it was Finance Minister Jim Flaherty's turn.  Flaherty  brought down a budget I'd call surprising given this is his government's first with no Opposition breathing down their necks.

It wasn't bad, I just have doubts as to whether it went far enough.  It went big on saving money, small on spending. They cut Civil Service by 19 thousand, and are going to stop making the penny this fall.  They raised retirement age by two years, and changed the environmental reviews process for resource projects. 

The approval process for a resource project- the Northern Gateway pipeline for example can take up to 6 years to complete.  The measure spoken of in the budget will shorten that to 24 months in what Flaherty calls an "accelerated regulatory process".  Hand-in-Hand with this is are measures to grant Revenue Canada greater auditing powers to make sure that "Green" charities are in fact sticking to a limit of 10% of their overall budget when they lobby politicians.  At the core of this is a realization that a lot of Canada's jobs are going to come from t he resource sector.  This could be bad for the environment, but I think we should wait to see how this plays out before we offer a final verdict on this one.

The budget also raised the amount Canadians can bring back into the country from the United States from $50 over a 24 hour period to $200 starting in June, 2012.  On the one hand this helps people who spend a lot of time down south, on the other it could backfire as people begin doing more of their shopping in the United States.  What happened to the noises Flaherty was making late last year when he talked about asking Canadian retailers to lower their prices to the same levels as their American counterparts? I'd find a way to include a statement to that effect in the budget.  Perhaps some tax cuts for those that do??

Part of the Conservatives' job creation plan appears directed towards innovation.  The Conservatives propose reforming the current system of indirect tax credits to one based around innovation, and productivity.  The grand scheme is to dedicate $1.1 billion over the next five years to support research and development; $500 will go to fund innovative companies already in existence.  Additionally, the government is working on free-trade agreements that will increase the marketplace for Canadian goods, services, and labour.

Here's where it didn't quite go far enough. The ideas on free-trade and innovation are great ideas which, are going to end up helping the Canadian economy.  But in my limited exposure to the business community, I've come to the conclusion that Canadian towns, and cities are fueled by their small businesses.  The free-trade agreements, and the tax system reform will help them at some point, as will the $1000 hiring credit for new employees.  But a lot of these smaller businesses- I speak of the mom& pop shops, need more direct help now more than just the  $1000 hiring credit.  Flaherty had a chance to address some of the concerns, but didn't.

And so, I return to Old Age Security.  The age goes up by 2 years from 65-67, which affects those 54 years of age or younger.  I see the need to do that, and I agree with it.  But the whole thing is that as the older workers are in the labour force longer, there are fewer jobs for younger people.  I would've loved to see this measure implemented with some sense  of balance- raising the OAS age, while including measures to help younger people get into the work force.. and that didn't happen.

My verdict: Not a bad budget for a first one as a Conservative majority.  It just didn't go far enough in a few areas.