The Deal, and the Politics

The deal reached Monday that averted an election doesn't bother me.  It forced the people making over $500 thousand to pay an extra 2% on their taxes.  It seems a pittance to me to avoid a provincial election worth over $100 million that probably wouldn't have accomplished much anyway.  McGuinty is saying right now the tax will only stay until the deficit is paid off.  I've heard it said it is nearly impossible to repeal a tax measure once implemented.

What's more interesting here is the politics. Dalton McGuinty made a catchphrase out of "I will not raise taxes a penny more," and now here he is having to break a promise... again.   The polls show it's a move the rest of us fully support; but it is still is a broken promise.  And it's one that has to anger his party's supporters on Bay Street who will be effected by this, and that will end up costing him votes.  When you put it together with the rest of the budget- the semi-voluntary public sector wage freeze, and asking seniors to pay more for their drugs based on the income; this could be end up being a politically expensive budget for him. 

The N.D.P. and Andrea Horwath come off as a political winner here.  She got what she wanted; the tax hike, and more money for social programs and health care.  She comes off as a strong leader in the eyes of her supporters, and maybe wins a few more a votes given that she saved the government from defeat.  But it's a pretty hollow victory. It's a dangerous game she plays; agreeing to a deal one day, and abstaining from a vote  on the budget the next. It begs the question why make the deal if you don't plan to vote for it?  It's almost as if the N.D.P. wants to have its cake and eat it too- it wants to push through its priorities but it's almost like it's reserving the right to vote against it at a later date.   It raises some integrity questions about the N.D.P.

Tim Hudak comes off as being the big loser in all of this.  I give him points for consistency- he said his party would vote against it, and so they did.  He's also isolated himself now, sitting firmly on the outside looking in, as Andrea Horwath takes the lead in a role that should really be his as leader of the opposition. I find lately Hudak's been going for the easy line too much, instead of the good policy idea; it makes it seem as if he hasn't found the balance between providing a government-in-waiting, and a voice for the opposition.   

The deal has been struck ensuring the McGuinty government's survival.  However the games have just begun.