The title is born mostly of frustration. I've been on the job market since late November... and let's say I've had enough bites to know that it's more likely because of job market conditions than any lack of qualifications on my part. The fact is a lot of employers simply for whatever reason aren't hiring.
And I think it's about to get worse. On Wednesday the announcement came down that Standard& Poors was downgrading our economic outlook, and Thursday Moody's decided to downgrade Ontario's credit. It likely has something to do with the budget deal struck Monday, and then the budget voted on, Tuesday.
It probably is really no more than a verdict on the provincial budget. Specifically on the fact there is a new tax being applied when conventional wisdom shows us that business tax cuts are a better way to stimulate growth in private business. And who runs private business? Usually people making over $500 thousand... aka those being asked to fork it over by the N.D.P.
It's a wake-up call to Dalton McGuinty that he's got to stick to his guns on the Public Sector wage freeze, and the other cost-cutting measures contained within the budget. This may even shock him into re-thinking some of his response to the Drummond Report, and really going at it to cut spending. At least these are the things I keep trying to tell myself.
I look at these moves as a job hunter and wonder if I'm banging my head against a brick wall trying to find a job here. I wonder who will invest in a province that's got this enormous debt, and where the Premier is so beholden to his opposition he introduces a new tax just to keep power? Who will invest in a province where a government is constantly on the verge of collapse and the Premier let's face it, isn't exactly the most trustworthy as it comes to public money these days? Who will invest in a province where taxes are probably going to keep going up? Nobody, that's who. Not a single investor will, and I can't say that I blame them.
And the worst part of is Dalton McGuinty is probably the best of the bunch. In her deal with the Liberals N.D.P. leader Andrea Horwath showed a penchant for taxing, and spending usually associated with the party. In doing some reading on their website the P.C.'s have some ideas, but they're vague at best;the minute they become policy ideas is the minute they become a serious threat to McGuinty.
So when did that happen? When did a leader who has regularly broken promises, whose government has been in recent years plagued by scandals involving out tax dollars become the best we can do? Probably after the last provincial election when even after nearly a year of campaigning voters still didn't know Tim Hudak that well or trust him.
Dalton McGuinty made the mess. Now's the time to clean it up... if he doesn't then voters should do it for him by electing someone else next time out. At least I hope that's what will happen. If it doesn't I'll move to Saskatchewan.
Showing posts with label provincial budget 2012. Show all posts
Showing posts with label provincial budget 2012. Show all posts
Saturday, April 28, 2012
Wednesday, April 25, 2012
The Deal, and the Politics
The deal reached Monday that averted an election doesn't bother me. It forced the people making over $500 thousand to pay an extra 2% on their taxes. It seems a pittance to me to avoid a provincial election worth over $100 million that probably wouldn't have accomplished much anyway. McGuinty is saying right now the tax will only stay until the deficit is paid off. I've heard it said it is nearly impossible to repeal a tax measure once implemented.
What's more interesting here is the politics. Dalton McGuinty made a catchphrase out of "I will not raise taxes a penny more," and now here he is having to break a promise... again. The polls show it's a move the rest of us fully support; but it is still is a broken promise. And it's one that has to anger his party's supporters on Bay Street who will be effected by this, and that will end up costing him votes. When you put it together with the rest of the budget- the semi-voluntary public sector wage freeze, and asking seniors to pay more for their drugs based on the income; this could be end up being a politically expensive budget for him.
The N.D.P. and Andrea Horwath come off as a political winner here. She got what she wanted; the tax hike, and more money for social programs and health care. She comes off as a strong leader in the eyes of her supporters, and maybe wins a few more a votes given that she saved the government from defeat. But it's a pretty hollow victory. It's a dangerous game she plays; agreeing to a deal one day, and abstaining from a vote on the budget the next. It begs the question why make the deal if you don't plan to vote for it? It's almost as if the N.D.P. wants to have its cake and eat it too- it wants to push through its priorities but it's almost like it's reserving the right to vote against it at a later date. It raises some integrity questions about the N.D.P.
Tim Hudak comes off as being the big loser in all of this. I give him points for consistency- he said his party would vote against it, and so they did. He's also isolated himself now, sitting firmly on the outside looking in, as Andrea Horwath takes the lead in a role that should really be his as leader of the opposition. I find lately Hudak's been going for the easy line too much, instead of the good policy idea; it makes it seem as if he hasn't found the balance between providing a government-in-waiting, and a voice for the opposition.
The deal has been struck ensuring the McGuinty government's survival. However the games have just begun.
What's more interesting here is the politics. Dalton McGuinty made a catchphrase out of "I will not raise taxes a penny more," and now here he is having to break a promise... again. The polls show it's a move the rest of us fully support; but it is still is a broken promise. And it's one that has to anger his party's supporters on Bay Street who will be effected by this, and that will end up costing him votes. When you put it together with the rest of the budget- the semi-voluntary public sector wage freeze, and asking seniors to pay more for their drugs based on the income; this could be end up being a politically expensive budget for him.
The N.D.P. and Andrea Horwath come off as a political winner here. She got what she wanted; the tax hike, and more money for social programs and health care. She comes off as a strong leader in the eyes of her supporters, and maybe wins a few more a votes given that she saved the government from defeat. But it's a pretty hollow victory. It's a dangerous game she plays; agreeing to a deal one day, and abstaining from a vote on the budget the next. It begs the question why make the deal if you don't plan to vote for it? It's almost as if the N.D.P. wants to have its cake and eat it too- it wants to push through its priorities but it's almost like it's reserving the right to vote against it at a later date. It raises some integrity questions about the N.D.P.
Tim Hudak comes off as being the big loser in all of this. I give him points for consistency- he said his party would vote against it, and so they did. He's also isolated himself now, sitting firmly on the outside looking in, as Andrea Horwath takes the lead in a role that should really be his as leader of the opposition. I find lately Hudak's been going for the easy line too much, instead of the good policy idea; it makes it seem as if he hasn't found the balance between providing a government-in-waiting, and a voice for the opposition.
The deal has been struck ensuring the McGuinty government's survival. However the games have just begun.
Monday, April 16, 2012
Ontario Budget Vote Day: April 24, 2012
The Ontario Liberals announced this morning they will bring their 2012 provincial budget to a vote April 24, 2012- one week from tomorrow. They also stated they've been unable so far to come to a deal with Andrea Horwath and the N.D.P, something vital for avoiding the second provincial election in a year.
I don't think this budget is worth going to an election over. The major weakness from where I sit is the lack of a job creation strategy. There is no reason the N.D.P's idea of a tax credit for companies creating new jobs can't be tweaked to suit the Liberals budget.
The problem with that is the Liberals have asked the N.D.P. to cost out their demands. This one carries a $250 million price tag. Where will the N.D.P. get the money? The answer lies likely in demand #1: a tax increase for those making over $500 thousand/ year. Essentially this could put the Premier known for repeating he will not raise taxes a penny more, in a position of having to raise taxes in order keep his government afloat. Something that amounts to political suicide for McGuinty, and something none of us wants.
An election right now won't benefit anyone. The low turnout last time will be surpassed by a turnout this time; people will vote with their feet and stay away. They'll say a pox upon all of your houses, and the results may even be messier than they are right now. Besides that, can a province that's billions in debt afford to throw out another $100 million?
The only thing it might do is force the Liberals to clean house at Health after the scandal at Ornge. Tempting as that is, I don't really think that's worth an election; the same can be done much cheaper with a simple resignation. The budget will be more like background noise for another campaign; it will be the fight being waged by the public sector unions against a pay freeze. It may even be framed as a discussion over the future of organized labour.
Will we have another election? My gut says no... that budget isn't worth going to a campaign over. But perhaps the ongoing fight against the attempted pay freeze may send us there; organized labour is a pretty powerful force in Ontario. Whatever happens the ball is clearly in Andrea Horwath's we'll know for sure April 24, 2012.
I don't think this budget is worth going to an election over. The major weakness from where I sit is the lack of a job creation strategy. There is no reason the N.D.P's idea of a tax credit for companies creating new jobs can't be tweaked to suit the Liberals budget.
The problem with that is the Liberals have asked the N.D.P. to cost out their demands. This one carries a $250 million price tag. Where will the N.D.P. get the money? The answer lies likely in demand #1: a tax increase for those making over $500 thousand/ year. Essentially this could put the Premier known for repeating he will not raise taxes a penny more, in a position of having to raise taxes in order keep his government afloat. Something that amounts to political suicide for McGuinty, and something none of us wants.
An election right now won't benefit anyone. The low turnout last time will be surpassed by a turnout this time; people will vote with their feet and stay away. They'll say a pox upon all of your houses, and the results may even be messier than they are right now. Besides that, can a province that's billions in debt afford to throw out another $100 million?
The only thing it might do is force the Liberals to clean house at Health after the scandal at Ornge. Tempting as that is, I don't really think that's worth an election; the same can be done much cheaper with a simple resignation. The budget will be more like background noise for another campaign; it will be the fight being waged by the public sector unions against a pay freeze. It may even be framed as a discussion over the future of organized labour.
Will we have another election? My gut says no... that budget isn't worth going to a campaign over. But perhaps the ongoing fight against the attempted pay freeze may send us there; organized labour is a pretty powerful force in Ontario. Whatever happens the ball is clearly in Andrea Horwath's we'll know for sure April 24, 2012.
Monday, April 2, 2012
My Stories To Watch: April 2-9 2012
Stories to watch this week....
1. Ontario Budget Drama: What price will the N.D.P. demand of Dalton McGuinty to keep him in power? Andrea Horwath is set to give her demands, or let us know if she intends to follow fellow Opposition Leader Tim Hudak and vote it down. In an interview with Moore in the Morning today, Horwath refused to say if she even been talking to the Liberals over the weekend.
2. The Three Amigos meet: Prime Minister Stephen Harper is meeting in Washington with President Barack Obama, with Mexican President Calderon. Items on the agenda include greater trade ties, and how to tackle the Mexican drug cartels.
3. The Rafferty Trial: Chapter #4 of the Crown's case against Michael Rafferty continues this week. Today the jury takes a tour of the field where Tory Stafford's body was found.
4. Air Canada: The union representing airline's machinists are taking the federal government to court. They're arguing the federal government's anti-strike legislation is unconstitutional because it violates the freedom of association. The pilot's union has started a similar challenge.
In Local Politics...
Note: Tonight's Community Services Standing Committee meeting has been cancelled.
1. Ontario Budget Drama: What price will the N.D.P. demand of Dalton McGuinty to keep him in power? Andrea Horwath is set to give her demands, or let us know if she intends to follow fellow Opposition Leader Tim Hudak and vote it down. In an interview with Moore in the Morning today, Horwath refused to say if she even been talking to the Liberals over the weekend.
2. The Three Amigos meet: Prime Minister Stephen Harper is meeting in Washington with President Barack Obama, with Mexican President Calderon. Items on the agenda include greater trade ties, and how to tackle the Mexican drug cartels.
3. The Rafferty Trial: Chapter #4 of the Crown's case against Michael Rafferty continues this week. Today the jury takes a tour of the field where Tory Stafford's body was found.
4. Air Canada: The union representing airline's machinists are taking the federal government to court. They're arguing the federal government's anti-strike legislation is unconstitutional because it violates the freedom of association. The pilot's union has started a similar challenge.
In Local Politics...
Note: Tonight's Community Services Standing Committee meeting has been cancelled.
Wednesday, March 28, 2012
Ontario Budget 2012 verdict
Finance Minister Dwight Duncan presented a so-so budget yesterday. It had its good points- the expansion at Milton District Hospital escaped the knife, and there are signs the Liberals really mean to clamp down on public sector unions. It gave a slight nod to both the Progressive Conservatives (P.C.)'s by asking seniors making over $100 thousand to pay for some drugs, and the N.D.P. by freezing hospital C.E.O. and M.P.P. salaries. It attempted to strike a happy medium by keeping the Green Energy rebate, but capping it at 3000 kWh.
Lots in there for the education system. The Liberals have moved to cut the so-called "lap year," where students take an extra semester or two to boost marks. They're continuing to implement their centre piece all-day Kindergarten program, and will offer 30% tuition grants for post-secondary students. And contrary to what the opposition says there is a Jobs& Prosperity fund; expected to save according to their numbers $250 million. How that will affect job creation remains to be seen.
The bad points have to start with getting tough with the public sector unions. The ultimatum that the Liberal government could legislate a wage freeze, coupled with noises about public sector pensions will anger unions. O.P.S.E.U and the teaching unions are all in various stages of contract negotiations and I can't see them willing to just take the freeze without a fight. And I'm betting it could be a messy fight as well. I have to give the Liberals points on this though to be willing to break with the union support. But I have to ask, is it too little, too late? The ship labelled "public sector wage freeze" set sail the moment they began selectively giving raises.
Did it do enough to create jobs? Honestly no. The province isn't expected to see the savings from the Job & Prosperity fund until 2014-2015. Meanwhile there is still unemployment; cancelling corporate tax cuts while glamorous, and something that will win points with the N.D.P. won't create jobs. It needs to be easier for businesses to hire; people need to be working it increases the tax base.
In my opinion this budget isn't worth fighting an election over. While the budget is lacking in parts, it isn't worth wasting 35 days, and $100 million over. However when you take the so-so budget, and combine it with the Ornge scandal, and public sector union back lash against the budget we may find ourselves voting sometime in early May.
Lots in there for the education system. The Liberals have moved to cut the so-called "lap year," where students take an extra semester or two to boost marks. They're continuing to implement their centre piece all-day Kindergarten program, and will offer 30% tuition grants for post-secondary students. And contrary to what the opposition says there is a Jobs& Prosperity fund; expected to save according to their numbers $250 million. How that will affect job creation remains to be seen.
The bad points have to start with getting tough with the public sector unions. The ultimatum that the Liberal government could legislate a wage freeze, coupled with noises about public sector pensions will anger unions. O.P.S.E.U and the teaching unions are all in various stages of contract negotiations and I can't see them willing to just take the freeze without a fight. And I'm betting it could be a messy fight as well. I have to give the Liberals points on this though to be willing to break with the union support. But I have to ask, is it too little, too late? The ship labelled "public sector wage freeze" set sail the moment they began selectively giving raises.
Did it do enough to create jobs? Honestly no. The province isn't expected to see the savings from the Job & Prosperity fund until 2014-2015. Meanwhile there is still unemployment; cancelling corporate tax cuts while glamorous, and something that will win points with the N.D.P. won't create jobs. It needs to be easier for businesses to hire; people need to be working it increases the tax base.
In my opinion this budget isn't worth fighting an election over. While the budget is lacking in parts, it isn't worth wasting 35 days, and $100 million over. However when you take the so-so budget, and combine it with the Ornge scandal, and public sector union back lash against the budget we may find ourselves voting sometime in early May.
Tuesday, March 27, 2012
Ontario Budget: It's in the NDP's hands now
To cause an election or not cause an election that is the question whether tis nobler to suffer the slings and arrows of outraged unions" (apologies to William Shakespeare for that one). That's essentially what it comes down to for Ontario's political parties after the provincial budget was read by Finance Minister Dwight Duncan.
Tim Hudak and the Progressive Conservatives have already said they will not support it, leaving it up to Andrea Horwath and the N.D.P to keep the McGuinty Government afloat. Andrea Horwath is taking a more measured approach, saying she wants to talk to Ontarians before making a final decision.
I think she's in a pretty sticky situation. There was in the budget a sternly worded ultimatum to the public sector workers from the McGuinty government to please take a pay freeze, or we'll legislate it. Both O.P.S.E.U (Ontario Public Sector Employees Union), and all teaching unions are in a contract year, and are at various stages of negotiating with their employer aka. the government. There has to be pressure from them to vote down the budget because of this, and that will be hard to ignore.
On the other hand as Andrea Horwath tours the province speaking to Ontarians she'll likely find the rest of us have little appetite for an election at this point. The economy is in a tough state of affairs, putting off fixing it for another 5 weeks for pretty much the same outcome is insanity itself really. Besides there is the money involved to consider as well: $100 million to be exact. And when offered a choice between a pay freeze and no job, most would probably take the pay freeze.
She'll probably find lots of anger over the Ornge scandal as well. Lately the provincial government has been using the line the money lost in the Ornge Ambulance debacle is only 3/4 of a percentage of the overall health care portion of the budget. In the context of a provincial budget it isn't much; but when you mention the disappearance of millions of dollars, and equipment sitting unused to regular Ontarians; some of whom can barely make ends meet then it's a lot of money, and a lot of waste.
Personally, I'd like to see this settled without another election. It's been less than six months since the last one, and I don't think it'll change much in terms of the standings. The timing aspect has to be part of the decision for the Lieutenant Governor as well. But he has another option; he could ask Andrea Horwath or Tim Hudak to meet the Legislature and try and form a government.
The Liberals have stated they would fight an election on their budget. I think that like the Governor General, the Lieutenant Governor has to obey a government so long as it is in office; so if a non-confidence vote ends up happening then expect a return to the polls. In the meantime the fate of the Ontario Budget is in the hands of the N.D.P. and Andrea Horwath.
Tim Hudak and the Progressive Conservatives have already said they will not support it, leaving it up to Andrea Horwath and the N.D.P to keep the McGuinty Government afloat. Andrea Horwath is taking a more measured approach, saying she wants to talk to Ontarians before making a final decision.
I think she's in a pretty sticky situation. There was in the budget a sternly worded ultimatum to the public sector workers from the McGuinty government to please take a pay freeze, or we'll legislate it. Both O.P.S.E.U (Ontario Public Sector Employees Union), and all teaching unions are in a contract year, and are at various stages of negotiating with their employer aka. the government. There has to be pressure from them to vote down the budget because of this, and that will be hard to ignore.
On the other hand as Andrea Horwath tours the province speaking to Ontarians she'll likely find the rest of us have little appetite for an election at this point. The economy is in a tough state of affairs, putting off fixing it for another 5 weeks for pretty much the same outcome is insanity itself really. Besides there is the money involved to consider as well: $100 million to be exact. And when offered a choice between a pay freeze and no job, most would probably take the pay freeze.
She'll probably find lots of anger over the Ornge scandal as well. Lately the provincial government has been using the line the money lost in the Ornge Ambulance debacle is only 3/4 of a percentage of the overall health care portion of the budget. In the context of a provincial budget it isn't much; but when you mention the disappearance of millions of dollars, and equipment sitting unused to regular Ontarians; some of whom can barely make ends meet then it's a lot of money, and a lot of waste.
Personally, I'd like to see this settled without another election. It's been less than six months since the last one, and I don't think it'll change much in terms of the standings. The timing aspect has to be part of the decision for the Lieutenant Governor as well. But he has another option; he could ask Andrea Horwath or Tim Hudak to meet the Legislature and try and form a government.
The Liberals have stated they would fight an election on their budget. I think that like the Governor General, the Lieutenant Governor has to obey a government so long as it is in office; so if a non-confidence vote ends up happening then expect a return to the polls. In the meantime the fate of the Ontario Budget is in the hands of the N.D.P. and Andrea Horwath.
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